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Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists and Kidney Outcomes in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Näytönastekatsaukset
Käypä hoito työryhmä Diabeteksen munuaistauti
28.10.2025

Level of evidence: A

Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, especially semaglutide, reduce clinically important kidney events including kidney replacement therapy, a persistent eGFR of <15 ml/min/1.73 m2, at sustained reduction in eGFR by at least 50%, or death in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Table 1. Description of the included studies
Reference Study type Population Intervention and comparison Outcomes Risk of bias
RCT=randomized controlled trial; eGFR = an estimated glomerular filtration rate; MI = myocardial infarction; TIA = transient ischemic attack.
«Perkovic V, Tuttle KR, Rossing P, ym. Effects of S...»1 RCT
NCT03819153
Randomized 1:1, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Median follow-up period: 3.4 years (range, 0 to 4.5). Between June 2019 and May 2021, 5581 patients were screened and 3533 were randomized.

Europe 26.7 %, North America 23.9 %, Asia 27.1 %, Other 22.3 %.

Included patients were adults (mean age 66.6±9.0 years, female 30.3%) with type 2 diabetes with HbA1c ≤10% (86 mmol/mol) and chronic kidney disease defined as either eGFR of 50 - 75 ml/min/1.73 m2 and a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 300 to 5000 mg/g or an eGFR of 25 - 50 ml/min/1.73 m2 and a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 100 to 5000 mg/g, treated with a stable maximum labelled or tolerated dose of renin-angiotensin system blockade.
The mean eGFR was 47.0 ml/min/1.73 m2, and the median urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio was 567.6. mg/g.

Excluded patients had congenital or hereditary kidney disease or autoimmune kidney disease, history of a recent MI, stroke, recent hospitalization for unstable angina or TIA, NYHA class IV heart failure, malignant neoplasm within 5 years, dialysis treatment or a kidney transplant.
Intervention: Semaglutide

Participants received subcutaneous semaglutide treated up to 1.0 mg per week.

Comparison: Placebo

Participants received matching placebo once in week in addition to standard of care therapy.
The primary composite outcome, assessed in a time-to-first-event analysis, was major kidney disease events, a composite of onset of kidney failure (initiation of long-term dialysis, kidney transplantation, or a reduction in the eGFR to <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 sustained for ≥28 days), a sustained (for ≥28 days) 50% or greater reduction in eGFR from baseline, or death from kidney-related or cardiovascular causes.

Three confirmatory secondary outcomes were total eGFR slope (i.e., the annual rate of change in eGFR from randomization to the end of the trial); major cardiovascular events (a composite of nonfatal MI, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes), assessed in a time-to-first-event analysis; and death from any cause.
Low
Table 2. Additional comments for included studies.
Reference Comments
«Perkovic V, Tuttle KR, Rossing P, ym. Effects of S...»1 The FLOW (Evaluate Renal Function with Semaglutide Once Weekly) study evaluated whether treatment with once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide delays the progression of kidney disease and lowers the risk of kidney failure, as well as kidney and cardiovascular disease mortality, compared with placebo in people with chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes.

The trial was stopped early for efficacy after the single planned formal interim analysis, so its treatment effect may be overestimated. Semaglutide or placebo was permanently discontinued by 26% of participants during the trial.

Only 11.3% of patients had baseline eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2, so, whether GLP-1 receptor agonists are safe and effective in patients with severe CKD is unknown.

Only 15.6% of patients were treated with sodium–glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors at baseline, so the stydy was underpowered to assess the effects of combination therapy.

Results

Table 3. Outcome 1. Major kidney disease events: composite of kidney failure, sustained GFR decrease of ≥50%, or death from kidney-related or cardiovascular causes.
Reference Number of patients (I/C) Follow-up time Absolute number of events (%) I Absolute number of events (%) C Hazard ratio (95% CI)
I= intervention; C=comparison; CI=confidence interval
«Perkovic V, Tuttle KR, Rossing P, ym. Effects of S...»1 1767/1766 3.4 331 (18.7%) 410 (23.2%) 0.76 (0.66-0.88)
Level of evidence: high
Table 4. Outcome 2. Component of primary outcome: Persistent ≥50% reduction from baseline in eGFR
Reference Number of patients (I/C) Follow-up time Absolute number of events (%) I Absolute number of events (%) C Hazard ratio (95% CI)
I= intervention; C=comparison; CI=confidence interval
«Perkovic V, Tuttle KR, Rossing P, ym. Effects of S...»1 1767/1766 3.4 165 (9.3%) 213 (12.1%) 0.73 (0.59-0.89)
Level of evidence: high
Table 5. Outcome 3. Component of primary outcome: Death from cardiovascular causes.
Reference Number of patients (I/C) Follow-up time Absolute number of events (%) I Absolute number of events (%) C Hazard ratio (95% CI)
I= intervention; C=comparison; CI=confidence interval
«Perkovic V, Tuttle KR, Rossing P, ym. Effects of S...»1 1767/1766 3.4 123 (7.0%) 169 (9.6%) 0.71 (0.56-0.89)
Level of evidence: high
Table 6. Outcome 4. Composite of kidney-specific components of the primary outcome
Reference Number of patients (I/C) Follow-up time Absolute number of events (%) I Absolute number of events (%) C Hazard ratio (95% CI)
I= intervention; C=comparison; CI=confidence interval
«Perkovic V, Tuttle KR, Rossing P, ym. Effects of S...»1 1767/1766 3.4 218 (12.3%) 260 (14.7%) 0.79 (0.66-0.94)
Level of evidence: moderate
Table 7. Outcome 5. Confirmatory secondary outcome: Major cardiovascular events.
Reference Number of patients (I/C) Follow-up time Absolute number of events (%) I Absolute number of events (%) C Hazard ratio (95% CI)
I= intervention; C=comparison; CI=confidence interval
«Perkovic V, Tuttle KR, Rossing P, ym. Effects of S...»1 1767/1766 3.4 212 (12.0%) 254 (14.4%) 0.82 (0.68-0.98)
Level of evidence: moderate
Table 8. Outcome 6. Confirmatory secondary outcome: Death from any cause.
Reference Number of patients (I/C) Follow-up time Absolute number of events (%) I Absolute number of events (%) C Hazard ratio (95% CI)
I= intervention; C=comparison; CI=confidence interval.
«Perkovic V, Tuttle KR, Rossing P, ym. Effects of S...»1 1767/1766 3.4 227 (12.8 %) 279 (15.8%) 0.80 (0.67-0.95)
Level of evidence: moderate

«Badve SV, Bilal A, Lee MMY, ym. Effects of GLP-1 r...»2: A meta-analysis including 11 RCTs and 85 373 participants assessed the effects of GLP-1 receptor agonists on kidney and cardiovascular disease outcomes. Of these, ten trials enrolled 67 769 patients with type 2 diabetes, and the remaining trial enrolled 17 604 patients with pre-existing cardiovascular disease and a BMI ≥27 kg/m2 but no previous diagnosis of diabetes. Mean age of patients was 63.3 years and 34.4% were female. Apart from the FLOW trial (R1), no other trial specifically enrolled participants with high-risk kidney disease. The mean baseline eGFR was 77.2 ml/min/1.73 m2, and 22.7% of patients had an eGFR lower than 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Only 8.8% of patients had a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio greater than 300 mg/g (33.8 mg/mmol).

The main kidney outcome was a composite outcome, consisting of kidney failure (kidney replacement therapy or a persistent eGFR <15 ml/min/1.73 m2), a sustained reduction in eGFR by at least 50%, or death from kidney failure. The main cardiovascular outcome was MACE, consisting of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke.

Compared with placebo, treatment with GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced the composite kidney outcome by 18% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0-93), kidney failure by 16% (HR 0.84, 0.72-0.99), MACE by 13% (HR 0.87, 0.81-0.93), and the risk of death due to any cause by 12% (HR 0.88, 0.83-0.93) in patients with type 2 diabetes. The number needed to treat to prevent one composite kidney outcome was 164 over 25.1 months.

References

  1. Perkovic V, Tuttle KR, Rossing P, ym. Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes. N Engl J Med 2024;391(2):109-121 «PMID: 38785209»PubMed
  2. Badve SV, Bilal A, Lee MMY, ym. Effects of GLP-1 receptor agonists on kidney and cardiovascular disease outcomes: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2025;13(1):15-28 «PMID: 39608381»PubMed